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Hurricanes making splash amidst Big Two dominance
College football conferences have never really been equal. One illustration of that is the longstanding divide between the Power Five (now Power Four after the downfall of the old Pac-12) and the rest of the FBS conferences theoretically at their level. But over the last decade-plus and the last round of realignment, another stark divide has sprung up between the Big Two of the SEC and Big Ten and the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12 before its exit from that top group. The current Associated Press Top 25 poll shows that, with nine of the current Top 10 from those Big Two conferences. But there's an interesting exception at No. 3, the ACC's Miami Hurricanes.
Before we get to Miami's performance this year, though, it's worth looking at why this Big Two divide exists. Some of it is about the on-the-field results. In the since-2014 playoff era, six of the 11 titles have been won by SEC teams (three by Alabama, two by Georgia, and one by LSU). Three have been won by Big Ten teams (two by Ohio State and one by Michigan), and two have been won by ACC teams (both by Clemson.)
The 11 runners-up in that span include four SEC teams (Alabama thrice, Georgia once), three now-Big Ten teams (Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State, although the former two were still in the Pac-12 in the seasons they appeared), two ACC teams (Clemson twice), a Big 12 team (TCU) and an independent team (Notre Dame). That also supports the idea of the SEC and Big Ten as seen above the others, especially in their most recent 16- and 18-team forms. But the divide becomes starker still when the entirety of the four-team playoff (2014-2023) is considered.
Across that span, Big Ten (Ohio State twice) and SEC (Alabama once, Georgia once) teams often earned selections without winning their conference. The only other such selections were Notre Dame twice (and the Irish don't have a conference) and TCU once (after a three-point overtime loss in the Big 12 championship game). Meanwhile, the SEC was represented every single year, and while the Big Ten was left out twice (2017 and 2018), teams from the other "power" conferences were more frequently excluded, including 13-0 ACC champion Florida State in the last unexpanded season, 2023.
There are plenty of debates that can be had on how much of this "Power Two" has come from those conferences' top teams actually performing better on the field, how much has come from higher perceptions of them and their opponents (which are so critical in college football, where the polls and the eventual CFP committee ultimately decide who's selected), how much comes from smart conference moves like early conference networks, and how much comes from those teams' own fanbases (conference networks only work if their programming is in demand). But whatever the cause, the effect is at least clear financial inequality.
It was obvious for much of the last decade that the SEC and Big Ten were pulling well clear of the other "power" conferences financially, with a 2022 Navigate estimate suggesting they'd be $40-$50 million ahead in per-school payouts by 2026. That was before the actual moves that saw Texas and Oklahoma go from the Big 12 to the SEC and USC, UCLA, and (eventually) Oregon and Washington leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, all of which has led to an even more stark discrepancy. And with Fox, CBS, and NBC doubling down on Big Ten coverage and ESPN/ABC emphasizing SEC coverage, it would be quite easy to think that those are the only conferences that matter.
But that makes it more interesting when there's a chance to break that paradigm. And the Miami Hurricanes have a notable opportunity there this week. They're the only team in the Top 10 from a conference outside the Big Ten and SEC (the Big 12 has Texas Tech at 11th and Iowa State at 14th), and they're part of one of only two ranked-on-ranked matchups, facing old rival No. 18 Florida State in primetime (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC Saturday, with ESPN's long-established top team of Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit on the call). The only other ranked-on-ranked game immediately precedes that on ABC, No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama. So there's a good argument that Miami's playing in the brightest spotlight of the week, especially given their rivalry with the Seminoles over the years, and given that this is the first time since 2016 when both have been ranked heading into a clash. (Strangely, though, ESPN's College GameDay will be at the Vanderbilt-Alabama game.)
And this is a Hurricanes team that seems to at least have the potential to shine in that spotlight. Miami hasn't won a national title since 2001 and hasn't won a conference title since 2003, and their best season since then before last year was a 10-3 performance with a division title under Mark Richt in 2017. But the new NIL era has seemed like a massive advantage for this school, which has brought in a lot of big-name recruits across sports. And while it's taken them time to see on-field results in football, head coach Mario Cristobal now seems to have them on the right track, going from 5-7 in his 2022 debut to 7-5 in 2023 to 10-3 last year.
This year's Hurricanes team looks potentially even stronger, and a big part of that is about transfer quarterback Carson Beck. Beck is in his sixth year of college football; he started at Georgia as a redshirt in 2020, played there the last four seasons, starting the last two, then transferred to Miami and received a notable NIL deal boost after doing so. And while his stats were pretty solid last year with the Bulldogs (3,485 passing yards, 28 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, and a 64.7 percent completion mark), he's looked even better in four games in orange and green so far, throwing for 972 yards with seven touchdowns against three interceptions and a remarkable 73.2 percent completion rate. Receivers Malachi Toney and CJ Daniels are leading the way for him, and the Hurricanes also have a solid running game led by Mark Fletcher Jr. (388 rushing yards and five touchdowns, 5.9 yards per carry).
Of course, the Seminoles will be no pushover either. They beat Alabama to open this season, and their only loss thus far was a 46-38 double-overtime defeat on the road against Virginia last week. And they have their own star transfer quarterback in Tommy Castellanos (who previously played at UCF and then Boston College), who leads FBS with 12.1 yards per attempt and is key to a FSU offense that's averaging 53 points and 600 yards per game (both best in FBS). And they'll have a ferocious home crowd on their side.
The road Hurricanes are still favored by 4.5 points, but the stage is set for what could be a thrilling and close clash. And if Miami manages to come out on top of that, they might be able to get the ACC into more national discussions. That's especially true given the paucity of other ranked-on-ranked games this week. This sets up as a great opportunity not just for the Hurricanes, but also for their conference.
Of course, with the expanded playoff, the stakes of attracting in-season attention aren't quite so high. With a two-team championship game or even a four-team playoff, it was quite possible for a team to finish with a perfect record and still be passed over, as Florida State was in 2023. With the current 12-team setup, the ACC champion is almost guaranteed a spot (the top five conference champions in the rankings are locked in) and a chance to prove themselves on the field. But attention and rankings still matter, including for the first-round bye given to the top four teams. And games like this also matter to the conference; a thriller here would give the ACC a selling point to say "Hey, CFB fans should pay attention to us."
Obviously, a lot of that is outside of the ACC's control. They're not in charge of what gets discussed on sports studio shows or the likes of GameDay or Big Noon Kickoff, and a lot of that isn't about the on-field product. And there's no guarantee even a great game here and a continued strong showing from Miami receives a lot of national attention, although it's notable that the Hurricanes are already drawing some of that (including in the video whose thumbnail is shown at the top, from Greg McElroy's ESPN podcast Always College Football). But this is at the least an opportunity for them, and one that ACC Network is smartly leaning into with an altcast (and with their own ACC Huddle pregame/results show live on scene all day). And it's at least a potentially-fascinating college football clash outside the bounds of the Big Two.
