Massive U.S. NHL playoff numbers suggest Stanley Cup Final will be no 'ratings nightmare'

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Big U.S. NHL ratings heading into Stanley Cup Final are a strong indication for where the league is at

It's been a good playoffs to date for the National Hockey League, especially when it comes to U.S. TV ratings. The latest example of that came with the conference finals. The Western Conference Final on ESPN averaged 2.2 million viewers despite the Vegas Golden Knights sweeping the Colorado Avalanche in four games, a boost of 44 percent over ESPN's coverage of the WCF last year (Edmonton Oilers-Dallas Stars, five games) and the most-watched conference final since 2015. And the Eastern Conference Final on TNT and truTV averaged 2.0 million viewers for the first four games of the Montreal Canadiens-Carolina Hurricanes series (ratings for Friday's Game 5, which Carolina won 6-1 to clinch the series, aren't yet in), up 49 percent from TNT Sports' ECF coverage last year (Florida Panthers-Hurricanes, five games). Thus, that all augers well for the Golden Knights-Hurricanes Stanley Cup Final, which begins Tuesday on ESPN. However, you wouldn't know that from "ratings nightmare" coverage of that Final matchup at places such as Outkick/Fox News and Newsweek, as seen above.

What makes the "ratings nightmare" coverage particularly surprising is that the conference finals are just the latest piece of the ratings success puzzle for the NHL. The first and second rounds of these playoffs also saw record numbers. For TNT Sports, that saw their most-watched first and second rounds ever, averaging 1.2 and 1.7 million viewers respectively. ESPN also saw record numbers under the current (2021-22 to present) rights deal, averaging 1.2 and 2.2 million viewers for the first and second rounds respectively. And both ESPN and TNT Sports posted record regular seasons as well, as previously discussed here.

Yes, some of that is about the shift in overall Nielsen methodology (to Big Data+Panel, which fully kicked in last fall), which has been a boon for many sports ratings. But the jumps here are beyond what you'd expect just from that methodology change. And the way they keep building on each other also stands out; this isn't about one particularly good matchup or particularly lengthy series. Indeed, it's maybe especially remarkable to see since-2022 records set for four-game and five-game conference finals, as a longer series is usually a big boost for ratings. The takeaway here is that the NHL is actually hot, probably more so than in the year of the infamous Sports Illustrated cover of 1994.

Of course, the larger mistake SI made there was attempting to use the NHL to dunk on the NBA. The NBA is also doing great right now, as we plan to explore in the coming days. And those leagues may actually be able to positively feed off each other, especially this year with both the NBA Finals and the Stanley Cup Final on ABC, and on non-conflicting days. But the point remains that these are great days for the NHL in terms of U.S. ratings. (And they've been just fine to date in Canada as well, with English-language coverage on Sportsnet and CBC and French-language coverage on TVA Sports leading to a North American average of 3.3 million viewers for the first two rounds, up 24 percent from the previous record in 2024.)

How much will this U.S. ratings momentum continue into the Stanley Cup Final? Yes, the Hurricanes and Golden Knights don't have the largest markets, and that seems to be much of the basis for the "ratings nightmare" articles at top. And yes, local markets can matter. But it's worth noting that for U.S. ratings, even smaller markets are better from a local perspective than a Canadian market like Edmonton that produces no Nielsen-tracked local ratings (and the Oilers appeared in the last two editions of the Stanley Cup Final).

There can be counterarguments to that, of course. Canadian teams aren't always terrible for U.S. ratings, as the Blue Jays showed last fall, and the Oilers did have the star power of Connor McDavid. But this Final seems to set up quite well for U.S. ratings based on U.S. markets and playoff and regular-season ratings to date. (And it should be fine enough in Canada; ratings there will quite likely be down from the last two series that involved Canadian teams, but there will still be people watching, and the U.S. gains may offset the Canadian drops.) We'll see how it turns out, but all certainly looks well for the NHL on the ratings front right now. And a U.S. "ratings nightmare" for this particular Final would be quite surprising indeed. Yes, the ultimate year-over-year numbers remain to be seen (and much there may depend on how long this series goes; 2024 saw a seven-game Final, while last year went six games, so maybe a sweep doesn't rank well against those), but all the ratings indications at the moment look quite good for the league.